Today’s markets analysis on behalf of Zaheer Anwari – Co-Founder and CEO at The Revacy Fund

Oil prices remained volatile and moved higher today, although they continue to trade well below the peak reached earlier in the week. The market remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, where elevated geopolitical tensions continue to expose energy infrastructure and shipping routes to significant risks.

Supply conditions have already tightened, as production in parts of the region has been curtailed due to limited storage capacity and difficulties in exporting crude amid shipping constraints. While some volumes have been redirected through pipelines, these alternatives could remain insufficient to fully offset the loss of maritime transport, leaving export capacity below normal levels.

At the same time, a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves by G7 countries could help ease immediate shortage concerns and stabilize prices. Additional measures, including insurance coverage for tankers and the use of military escorts, could support the resumption of shipments. If implemented effectively, these steps may limit further upside in oil and could lead to renewed downside pressure as supply fears begin to ease.

From a technical perspective, the reversal this week has brought oil prices back into a consolidation range, close to the levels observed for much of the period since 2023. Given the current conditions, caution remains prevalent regarding oil, while a clearer directional trend would typically be required before increasing allocation.