24th February 2025

Crude oil futures could remain under pressure after a strong decline on Friday as the market could see the potential resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan’s oil fields. With 185,000 barrels per day expected to flow through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, crude volumes available on the market could increase, weighing on prices in the short term. The supply increases come at a time when concerns about demand levels remain.

At the same time, the market could remain exposed to geopolitical risks and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine in particular, which could sustain market volatility. A potential peace deal in Ukraine and a removal of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil could strongly affect the market’s outlook. If sanctions are lifted, additional Russian oil could enter the market, exerting downward pressure on prices in the short term.

The market could also remain exposed over the longer term to US crude production policies, potential trade tensions and OPEC policy changes. The resulting higher production and weaker global growth could drive market prices to the downside.